Tag: #nieman lab

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Nieman Lab Prediction 2026: Editors will start tackling the 5% challenge – and it won’t be fun (at first)

The advances of generative AI have put those in charge of newsrooms on an emotional rollercoaster. While 2023 and 2024 were the years of reckless experimentation (“Hey, look what these models can do!”), in 2025, AI realism took over. Great ideas turned out to be hard to implement, costly, or solutions looking for problems (“Nice, but it’s not serving anyone!”). Putting strategy back into AI development became key.

This is why 2026 is likely to become the dip of the ride. Because now, the strategy needs to be filled with life. And while editors at media conferences widely agree that AI will force newsrooms to focus on unique, original journalism and experiences that create value for their audiences and deepen customer connections, some detailed data analysis will make many of them feel queasy. Because the result will often be not that different from what an editor recently revealed at an industry gathering: Only 5% of a subset of his brand’s content was original journalism. The subtext was clear, of course: The rest could have been done by an AI. Welcome to the 5% challenge.

Expect many newsroom leaders to become busy next year figuring out what exactly makes their brand stand out in the emerging sea of content. And even harder: finding a way to scale the 5% (or maybe 20%) to proportions that guarantee their journalism’s survival. Because let’s face it, the era of the web has been the age of copy-and-paste journalism. And this is exactly what (once) younger journalists have been raised to do in the past 20 years or so. Sitting behind the screen all day and competing for reach was the job. The word “reporting” — picking up stories from the streets by looking at things and talking to people, face-to-face or on the phone — was converted into the phrase “reporting on the ground,” which sounded as if leaving the comfort of the office was an award-worthy niche discipline.

For leaders, doing all of this will involve conveying some hard truths to many newsroom inhabitants: telling them that their daily work has to change — and fast. Converting agency copy into a snappy story — the AI has already done it. Doing some service journalism because customers safely clicked on it — the chatbot will have been there already. Upselling subscriptions with branded recipes — maybe, as long as ChatGPT still spoils the dish with hallucinations. Unfortunately, “stop doing” is among the hardest disciplines for any kind of enterprise. Because other than running exciting experiments and excelling in the innovation department, stopping routines and common practices is neither sexy nor does it bring about career advantages. To the contrary, it means robbing people of things they love to do, or are at least proficient in. And it takes away the status and power that was attached to practicing them. Speaking of rollercoasters, there will be some uncomfortable circles at the bottom of this.

There are four areas where media brands can scale the human-made part of their journalism

But here comes the uplifting part: Focusing one’s journalism on “the real thing” (again) will be fun — for seasoned hacks and creator-type newcomers alike. And it can also help bridge the newsroom generation gap. While younger colleagues can learn from the more experienced ones research and source-building skills for access and investigations (including persistence and picking up a phone), older ones will profit from everything that the Insta-and-Spotify generation can bring to the desk, like video, podcasting, data research, and brand-building competencies.

There are four areas in particular where media brands can scale the human-made part of their journalism: First, with strong personal brands who will play out their authenticity and humanness to connect with audiences (plenty has been published about news creators in 2025). Second, with deep expertise in niche areas that AI-generated content cannot provide because it is prone to converge around the average. Third, with investigations that make news consumers proud of “their” news brand. And fourth, with strong local journalism that is deeply rooted in its communities — in most cases, AI won’t go there. Creators who understand their formats and their stuff can figure in all of these areas, of course.

The sizable rest can safely be left to the workings of AI, where agents will do a much faster, more targeted, and personalized job than humans could have done, provided humans do the necessary prep work for accuracy. Markus Franz, chief technology officer of Munich-based Ippen Group, predicts that with agentic AI, the current “human in the loop” principle will be replaced with a “human on the loop” approach in the future that helps with scalability.

In all of these scenarios, journalism jobs will move into two quite different directions. One set of roles will lean toward the more techie side. They will need to shape the new AI-mediated world of journalism, ensure scalability that adheres to the quality standards of journalism, and build compelling products for customers that make them connect directly with the brand. On the other side, we will see the new “old-style” journalists who do everything to solicit exclusive information and/or establish themselves as personal brands. Talent will most likely have to pick sides early on, and it is essential that journalism education reflects and fosters this. As soon as everyone has settled into their new seats, the rollercoaster can go on its next climb.

This prediction was published with Harvard University’s Nieman Lab on December 16, 2025.

 

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Forget About Extinction: The Pandemic Has Been A Media Empowerment Event

Moaning can be a strategy, and the media has been using quite a bit of it in recent years. When the pandemic struck in the spring of 2020, it even felt like there was a competition for the bleakest headline. Who in the industry doesn’t remember Buzzfeed’s reporter Craig Silverman concluding that the coronavirus was a “media extinction event“. Last year though things went surprisingly quiet in the horror scenario department. And now the latest trend report by Oxford-based Reuters Institute is predicting something like a bull market for the industry: The subscription business is flourishing and even the digital advertising market, which had long been declared dead, has made a strong comeback. 59 percent of the surveyed 246 media executives from 52 countries reported rising revenues, and three out of four respondents expected an even better business in 2022. Hooray, we are playing again!

It should be noted that the annual survey is not representative. Mostly those respond who are already committed and possibly proud of their successes. Nevertheless, the situation is apparently better than the mood. Instead of a “media extinction event”, the pandemic has become a “media empowerment event.”

Fuelled by increased user interest and trust levels, editorial and management teams at many publishers have finally taken their fate into their own hands. They are developing new formats and workflows geared to user needs, fine-tuning subscription models, and even taking care of their customers. The crisis has accelerated innovation, dozens of media executives had already gone on record for the EBU News Report, published in late November 2021 (transparency note: I am lead author of the report).

This is about time. For decades, journalists have left the money-making part of the business to the publishers. These, in turn, had often just administrated advertisers and subscribers rather than selling advertising formats and journalism. But suddenly, advertising revenues dwindled, whereas on the content side, the quality supply multiplied. Journalism had become a consumer good, to be developed and sold accordingly. Only the producers had noticed it rather late. These days things are different. In many media outlets, teams of journalists, marketing, and tech have started to work together on products for different audiences. And what’s at least as important is that publishers look at how their neighbours are doing it, support each other, and – the master discipline – even develop solutions jointly. For 2022 and beyond, the smart ones are collaborating, cooperating and/or training together. This is happening on an international and national level. There are several examples:

► In the project “A European Perspective“, led by the European Broadcasting Union, public broadcasters share important content and make it accessible in different languages with the help of automated translation.

► In the Table Stakes Europe program, managed by the World Media Association Wan-Ifra, European publishers train their editorial teams in the “audiences first” principle and support each other; they recently started their third year (transparency note: I work as a coach in the program).

► In the award-winning Drive project, led by Deutsche Presse-Agentur, more than a dozen German regional publishers pool their user data and jointly analyse the findings.

And the number of international training programs, in which seasoned journalists and media managers look into each other’s decks and learn new skills, continues to grow. When it comes to innovation, scarce resources render it not only impossible but also stupid to be a lone warrior. This is especially true for public service media, where waste is hard to justify in front of the license fee or taxpayers.

Of course, there are also those who want to – and possibly can –  go it alone. In the first week of January, The New York Times announced its acquisition of sports journalism platform The Athletic. It did so for $550 million, giving it access to subscribers across America and beyond. The industry has been debating ever since whether this is a new killer virus for local journalism or not all that bad, as Joshua Benton of Harvard’s Nieman Lab reflected.

And then there’s Axios, another U.S. digital journalism provider, which plans to redefine local journalism in a land of news deserts. It launched Axios Local and is expanding into audience-centric business journalism with Axios Pro. In addition, there are plenty of creators on both sides of the Atlantic who are making their debut as founders, either alone or in teams. Young journalists seem to have overcome their shyness when it comes to business models. Just a year ago, Project Oasis, a major study on media start-ups in the U.S. and Canada, analysed that many founders’ lack of business knowledge was the biggest hurdle to becoming successful media entrepreneurs.

So, are the many appeals to support journalism superfluous because the industry can manage without help? It’s not quite that simple. Pressure on press freedom is growing in many countries, and journalists are increasingly exposed to aggressive attacks. In addition, many customers could develop a kind of subscription fatigue and thus bring the positive development to a standstill. In the “Trends and Predictions” report of the Reuters Institute, significantly more respondents were convinced of their own company success than predicting a great future for journalism. This demonstrates a new sense of agency but also a certain humility. The diligent workers outnumber the visionaries. Most respondents said their focus this year would be making what they had already built better, more efficient and more user-friendly. Making growth sustainable, this should be a central goal – in 2022 and beyond.